This speculation comes at a time when Gachagua is embroiled in power struggles within the Mt. Kenya region, where efforts to remove him as President William Ruto’s running mate are reportedly gaining momentum.
This emerging dynamic could significantly influence the political landscape, especially with the possibility of a Gachagua-Kalonzo-Uhuru alliance.
Kalonzo Musyoka, the Wiper Party leader, has long been a key figure in Kenyan politics. However, his political journey has been marked by a perception that he lacks the charisma to fully capture the electorate's imagination.
Despite having a substantial following, Kalonzo has often been seen as overly dependent on Raila Odinga, the leader of the opposition coalition Azimio la Umoja, with whom he has partnered in several past elections.
Political analysts argue that for Kalonzo to succeed in the 2027 elections, he needs to break free from this dependency and establish himself as a formidable contender in his own right.
According to Prof. Macharia Munene, a scholar of Political and Diplomatic History, Kalonzo's biggest challenge is his image. While he has a strong base, particularly in the Eastern region, where he could potentially secure around two million votes, this alone would not be enough to win the presidency.
To become a serious contender, Kalonzo needs to extend his influence beyond his traditional strongholds. This includes gaining significant support in the Mt. Kenya region, which has been a crucial voting bloc in past elections, and tapping into the votes that Raila Odinga garnered in the 2022 elections. However, doing so would require Kalonzo to redefine his political strategy and possibly form new alliances that could boost his chances.
One such potential alliance is with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Gachagua, who is currently facing internal challenges within the Mt. Kenya region, is seen as a key figure who could help Kalonzo secure votes from this critical region.
The idea of a Kalonzo-Gachagua partnership is intriguing, particularly if Gachagua is sidelined as Ruto's running mate. According to Prof. Munene, such an alliance could create a powerful political force.
However, it also presents a dilemma: both Kalonzo and Gachagua have historically served as second-in-command, which raises the question of who would take the lead in this partnership.
Munene suggests that Gachagua may not necessarily need to run for the presidency himself but could instead play a kingmaker role by endorsing Kalonzo.
This could help Gachagua build a long-term political base in Mt. Kenya, positioning himself as a significant power broker in the region's future political landscape.
Despite these possibilities, Kalonzo still faces several challenges. To be taken seriously as a presidential contender, he needs to demonstrate that he can lead independently.
Governance expert Tom Mboya emphasizes that Kalonzo must actively engage in holding the current government accountable if he wants to be seen as a viable alternative in the 2027 elections.
According to Mboya, there is currently a leadership vacuum in the opposition, and Kalonzo has an opportunity to fill this gap by becoming a more vocal and active critic of the government's policies.
However, if Kalonzo continues to wait for endorsements from other political leaders, he risks being overlooked in the 2027 election race. To succeed, he must step out of the shadows of his past alliances and prove that he can lead on his own terms.
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