Raila Odinga’s African Union Chair Bid: Kenya’s Diplomatic Gamble

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga makes his remarks during the launch of his bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship candidate at State House, Nairobi on August 27, 2024.

On August 27, 2024, Kenya's political landscape took a dramatic turn as President William Ruto officially endorsed former Prime Minister Raila Odinga for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. This endorsement marks a pivotal moment for Kenya, which has never had a representative in this high-ranking position despite previous attempts.

Raila’s candidacy comes at a unique time for Kenya. The country has been grappling with significant youth-led anti-government protests since June, leading to heightened political instability. These protests even saw demonstrators storm the Kenyan Parliament, echoing similar unrest in other countries such as Nigeria and Uganda. The violence and unrest persisted despite President Ruto’s efforts to address the issues, including withdrawing the controversial Finance Bill, 2024, dissolving the Cabinet, and promising reforms.

In light of this unrest, Raila Odinga's role as a unifying figure in Kenya could be seen as a stabilizing force, boosting his chances for the AUC position. President Ruto’s endorsement is a strategic move that projects a positive image for Kenya, showcasing the resilience of its democracy. 

However, critics argue that the recent formation of a broad-based government, which includes members of Raila’s opposition party, may overlook the concerns of the youth protestors and raise questions about democratic governance in Kenya.

President Ruto’s diplomatic efforts over the past two years have also played a role in Raila’s candidacy. Known as the “Flying President,” Ruto has conducted 62 official visits to 38 countries, promoting a Pan-Africanist agenda and strengthening Kenya’s position on the global stage. His successful hosting of the Africa Climate Change Summit and various high-profile visits to world capitals have garnered regional and international support for Raila.

However, Raila’s bid faces significant challenges within Eastern Africa. The region is presenting multiple candidates, including those from Mauritius, Madagascar, and Djibouti, complicating the consensus-building process. 

Geopolitical factors, such as Ethiopia’s reliance on Djibouti for trade and regional linguistic and religious divides, could impact Raila’s chances.