The long-serving Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader is vying for the prestigious position, but Kega believes that Odinga might face significant challenges, similar to those that led to his defeat in Kenya’s 2022 presidential election.
Kega, who is a prominent political figure from the Mt. Kenya region, did not mince words as he assessed Odinga's campaign for the AUC chair.
According to him, there are several parallels between the current AUC bid and the 2022 presidential campaign, which Odinga lost despite strong support from former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Reflecting on the 2022 election, Kega noted that many of Odinga’s supporters were overly confident in the power of Kenyatta’s endorsement. They believed that securing just 15% of the vote from the Mt. Kenya region would guarantee Odinga a win.
However, this strategy proved to be flawed, as Odinga was ultimately defeated by William Ruto, who is now Kenya’s President. Kega fears that a similar overconfidence could undermine Odinga’s AUC campaign.
Kega pointed out that the AUC bid is not just a national issue but an international one, requiring a well-coordinated and strategic approach. He warned that Odinga and his team must be fully aware of the complex dynamics at play.
One of the major obstacles he identified is the candidacy of Djibouti’s Mohamud Ali Youssouf. According to Kega, Youssouf has already secured the backing of 29 French-speaking African countries, which could significantly tip the scales in his favor.
Kega also highlighted the unity among the Muslim-majority countries in support of Youssouf, stating that this factor should not be underestimated. He emphasized that Odinga’s campaign needs to address this challenge head-on if they hope to win.
“The Muslim community has unified, and this should not be taken lightly,” Kega stated during the interview.
While Kega acknowledged that Odinga has a good chance of winning the AUC chairpersonship, he stressed that success would only come if the campaign is managed effectively.
He advised Odinga’s team to avoid the pitfalls of the 2022 presidential campaign, where complacency and overconfidence were major contributors to their loss.
He urged Odinga’s campaign team to take a hard look at their strategy and ensure that they do not repeat the mistakes of the past.
“Raila’s prospects of victory are good, but they must approach the situation with the realization that several circumstances are not in their favor,” Kega warned.
The AUC chairpersonship is a highly coveted position that holds significant influence over the direction of the African Union. Winning this seat would not only be a personal victory for Odinga but also a major diplomatic achievement for Kenya.
However, as Kega’s analysis suggests, the road to victory is fraught with challenges that require careful navigation. The stakes are high, and the outcome of this election could have lasting implications for Odinga’s political legacy and Kenya’s standing on the African continent.
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