Recent political developments in Kenya reveal deepening divisions within the government, which could impact Raila Odinga's quest for a position with the African Union (AU). The 2018 attempt by Odinga to swear himself in as President has resurfaced in discussions, complicating his bid for a prominent AU role.
Despite a recent unity deal between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga, political tensions remain high. The relationship between Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, is particularly strained. Although both leaders have publicly shown a united front, their supporters are engaged in ongoing indirect conflicts. These internal battles could influence Odinga's prospects in the AU.
Members of Ruto’s camp, including MPs Kimani Ichung’wah, Sylvanus Osoro, Mwangi Kiunjuri, and Oscar Sudi, have been critical of Gachagua. This criticism has intensified despite Ruto's efforts to stabilize his administration by aligning with Odinga. The criticism suggests a lingering divide within the government that might affect Odinga's potential role in the AU.
On the other hand, Odinga’s allies, such as Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, have been actively supporting Ruto. Wanga has praised Ruto for addressing contentious remarks made by Gachagua about past shareholding in the government. She emphasized the importance of including leaders from various regions in the administration, reflecting a degree of support for Ruto's inclusive approach. Wanga’s support is seen as a strategic move to strengthen the alliance between Odinga and Ruto.
However, Gachagua's supporters, including James Gakuya, Benjamin Gathiru, Jane Kihara, and Njeri Maina, are defending him against the ongoing attacks. They argue that Gachagua is being unfairly targeted and that the accusations against him—such as involvement in the Gen Z protests and attempts to blackmail Ruto—are unfounded. These defenders claim that Gachagua's actions are being misinterpreted and used against him to destabilize the administration.
The conflict between Gachagua and his critics has led to allegations that he sought to undermine Ruto’s presidency. Critics suggest that Gachagua's demands for expanding the administration to include Odinga's allies amount to blackmail. This accusation adds another layer to the complex political landscape, as it raises questions about loyalty and power within the government.
Odinga's 2018 swearing-in attempt remains a contentious issue. His bid for the AU position could be seen as controversial due to this past event. The swearing-in was a symbolic act of defiance against the results of the 2017 presidential election, and it has continued to influence Odinga's political image. The ongoing internal conflicts and public disputes within the Kenyan government could affect how his bid is perceived on the continental stage.
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