After failing to block the impeachment motion in court, Gachagua and his team are banking on the Senate for a lifeline as they anticipate a challenging outcome in the lower house.
The motion to impeach Gachagua was introduced by Kibwezi West MP Mwengi Mutuse and will be debated in the National Assembly, where a vote will take place.
To survive in the National Assembly, Gachagua needs at least 117 MPs to vote against the motion. However, this looks uncertain as only 54 MPs, who initially didn’t sign the impeachment petition, are expected to oppose the motion.
Gachagua’s strategists are worried that even with these 54 MPs on his side, they still need additional votes to reach the necessary threshold. If the National Assembly votes to impeach him, the matter will be passed to the Senate for further discussion.
With the National Assembly being a tough battleground, Gachagua is now eyeing the Senate as his best hope for survival. The Senate is composed of only 67 members, making it a more manageable arena for Gachagua’s allies to work with.
His team believes that the senators will approach the impeachment process with fairness and reason, giving Gachagua a chance to defend himself effectively.
For the motion to pass in the Senate, it would require two-thirds of the senators to support it. This means Gachagua needs the support of at least 23 senators to avoid being removed from office.
The United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which is President William Ruto’s party and Gachagua’s political home, holds 31 seats in the Senate. This gives Gachagua hope, as he only needs to secure a portion of the votes from his party to stay in office.
The opposition party, ODM, led by Raila Odinga, holds 20 Senate seats, while smaller parties such as Wiper and Jubilee also have representation.
Interestingly, both Jubilee and Wiper have announced their support for Gachagua, adding to the optimism of his camp.
Behind the scenes, efforts are being made to reconcile Gachagua with President Ruto. It has been reported that a governor, who is a close ally of Gachagua, is working with religious leaders to mediate between the two. The goal is to bring the leaders together and prevent the situation from escalating further.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo has confirmed that similar efforts are being made by Gachagua’s allies, noting that the Church is actively trying to bring about reconciliation. There are also reports that some citizens are opposing the motion, which could influence how the senators vote on the matter.
Gachagua’s supporters are hopeful that these reconciliation efforts will bear fruit and that President Ruto may intervene to stop the impeachment process.
There are suggestions that the President might instruct MPs to vote against the motion if the reconciliation efforts succeed.
On Tuesday, the National Assembly will begin its debate on the motion from 9 a.m., and Gachagua will be given two hours in the evening, from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., to present his defense.
He will respond to the 11 charges listed in the motion, and he has the option to be assisted by his lawyers.
After Gachagua’s defense, all 345 MPs in attendance will vote to either support or oppose the motion. With only four seats vacant in the Assembly, Gachagua’s future now depends on the outcome of these critical votes. If the motion passes, it will head to the Senate, where his fate will ultimately be decided.
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